This website covers topics on knowledge management, personal effectiveness, theory of constraints, amongst other topics. Opinions expressed here are strictly those of the owner, Jack Vinson, and those of the commenters.

Globe: Expertise is overrated

The Sunday Boston Globe's Ideas section has an interview with Philip Tetlock, who has a book on expertise: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?.  Tetlock has asked experts their predictions and then recorded the results.  The basic result: experts don't do much better than a coin flip in predicting the future.

Interesting stuff.  Experts are very good at reviewing what happened and explaining it through their particular lens of experience and expectations.  But when it comes to predicting the future, there are just too many random factors to predict much better than a coin toss.  Hopefully, scientific endeavors fare better than this, but we see it a lot.

Quiz: How information overloadeded are you

NY-Toronto Law Firm KM Summit 2008 in Boston