This website covers topics on knowledge management, personal effectiveness, theory of constraints, amongst other topics. Opinions expressed here are strictly those of the owner, Jack Vinson, and those of the commenters.

The problems with “Common and Expected Uncertainty” | Eli Schragenheim

We have generally left the days where people were regularly recommending new blog reading, which I still miss.  But Eli Schragenheim, author of a number of Theory of Constraints books and an active participant in ongoing TOC thinking has started writing his own blog.  And, as I have heard him speak a number of times, I can hear his voice in his writing style, which is always a plus.

For example, his recent post talks about The problems with “Common and Expected Uncertainty”, which is a familiar complaint that when people use estimates but then report only one number, not the possible range around that number.  He articulates a variety of bad effects that result from this common practice, such as this comment about sales forecasts:

The reliance on one number allows top management to judge their sales and operations people, however that judgment is flawed and the sales and operations managers have to protect themselves from the ignorance of top management.

Good stuff. If you care about these topics, go have a read!

More about uncertainty in TOC

Fun with job descriptions