This website covers topics on knowledge management, personal effectiveness, theory of constraints, amongst other topics. Opinions expressed here are strictly those of the owner, Jack Vinson, and those of the commenters.

Statistical basis required

In an excellent discussion on the CriticalChain Yahoo Group, Larry Leach mentions a point I hadn't put together before. "If you do not have a statistical basis for predicting the project end date, you have no
basis at all."

Essentially, even with a "unique" project, the elements of the project (the tasks) cannot be unique. Otherwise, the entire project and task duration estimates are pure guesses -- and it is worthless to assume you can even complete the project. Said another way, through experience and measurement, we know approximately how long it takes to do our work - this knowledge is the root of Leach's statistical basis.

It's a revelation to me.

Purpleslurple for more exact URL's

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